Ernesto to bring flooding rainfall and gusty winds to Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands; Bermuda and Nova Scotia on alert for impacts

> Flooding, mudslides and extended power outages are possible in Puerto Rico 

> Ernesto will bring rough surf and a dangerous rip current risk to Atlantic coast 
beaches from Florida through Maine starting Thursday 

> Ernesto is a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™Scale for Hurricanes across the 
northeastern Caribbean due to expected strong winds and flooding from heavy 
rain and storm surge 

AccuWeather Global Weather Center – August 13, 2024

“The Virgin Islands are dealing with drenching rain and gusty winds. This strengthening tropical storm could cause some major impacts and power outages on the islands, including Puerto Rico,” said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno. “The forward motion of Ernesto has slowed down. Whenever you see a storm slowing down, that usually signals a change in direction. We expect Ernesto to turn to the northwest.” 

Prepare for impacts across the Caribbean  

Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially across mountainous terrain, as Ernesto crosses through the northeastern Caribbean region.  
 
“Ernesto became a bit more compact Tuesday as the showers and thunderstorms re-formed around the center of circulation,” said Rayno.  

As the storm turns toward the north through the middle of the week, heavy rain will fall across Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches will stretch from the Lesser Antilles through Puerto Rico. Near where the storm tracks, 4-8 inches of rainfall is expected with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 24 inches, mainly in the highest elevations.  

AccuWeather expert meteorologists are forecasting sustained winds of 40-60 mph across much of the Lesser Antilles through Puerto Rico. Wind gusts of 60-80 mph are expected in the northeastern Caribbean, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 90 mph. 

“My concern is Ernesto will be strengthening as it comes through Puerto Rico, so the impacts may be greater than what people may be expecting from a tropical storm,” said Rayno.  

A storm surge of up to 3-6 feet is forecast for portions of the Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico, which would lead to flooding and coastal erosion into Wednesday. The greatest storm surge impacts are expected in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as Ernesto gains strength.

Ernesto is a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ for Hurricanes in the northeastern Caribbean due to concerns for strong winds and flooding from heavy rain and storm surge. A 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ for Hurricanes warns of localized flooding, damage to unanchored mobile homes, localized power outages, as well as coastal inundation resulting in some property damage.  

In contrast to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which classifies storms by wind speed only, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale is based on a broad range of important factors. In order to better communicate a more comprehensive representation of the potential impact of a storm to lives and livelihoods, the scale covers not only wind speed, but also flooding rain, storm surge and economic damage and loss. Some of these hazards such as inland flooding and storm surge in many storms result in more deaths and economic loss than wind. 

Hazards at Atlantic coast beaches from Florida through Maine 

AccuWeather expert meteorologists say Ernesto will create rough surf and dangerous rip currents along East coast beaches.  

Hazardous beach conditions are expected in Florida starting Thursday. The risk of rip currents and rough surf will expand north throughout the week, eventually impacting beaches in New England by this weekend.  

“Do not let your guard down if you’re heading to Atlantic coast beaches later this week or this weekend. The swells from Ernesto could create dangerous rip currents that can be hard to see,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “Ernesto will be hundreds of miles off the U.S. coast. The skies may be blue and the weather may look calm, but the waters could be dangerous. Please stay in areas where lifeguards are on duty, and make sure your family knows about the warning signs and how to escape a rip current by swimming parallel to the coast.” 

Bermuda and Nova Scotia on alert for possible impacts 

AccuWeather expert meteorologists say families, businesses, and officials in Bermuda need to be prepared for direct hurricane impacts before gusty winds and drenching rainfall start to move  in at the end of this week.  

“Ernesto could strengthen to a major hurricane by the time it approaches Bermuda this weekend. A Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale has maximum sustained winds of 111-129 miles per hour,” explained Rayno. “People in Bermuda need to be prepared.” 

AccuWeather expert meteorologists are forecasting 4-8 inches of rainfall in Bermuda, which would cause flooding, as well as wind gusts over 100 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 140 mph. These winds could bring down trees and power lines, cause structural damage, and leave areas without power for weeks. 

After passing by Bermuda, Rayno says Ernesto could bring gusty winds to parts of Newfoundland, Canada, by early next week. AccuWeather expert meteorologists are forecasting 40-60 mph winds with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 80 mph, which can contribute to rough surf and beach erosion there. 

“Nova Scotia may have a close encounter with Ernesto early next week,” said Rayno. “A dip in the jet stream will steer Ernesto away from the United States this week, but there is a second dip in the jet stream coming next week that may try to pull Ernesto back toward Nova Scotia.” 

AccuWeather expert meteorologists are urging families, businesses and officials to prepare for a flurry of tropical activity in the coming weeks. AccuWeather is forecasting an explosive Atlantic basin hurricane season with 20-25 named storms and four to six direct impacts to the U.S.  

AccuWeather Forecast Graphics

Additional AccuWeather Resources:

Tropical Storm Ernesto barrels into Caribbean; It's to become the Atlantic's next major hurricane   

Hurricane Tracking & Storm Radar
  

How to avoid the potentially deadly grip of a rip current
 

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