Vibrant Fall Foliage expected in 20 states this season

> AccuWeather is forecasting vibrant fall foliage in parts of New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Arkansas, 
Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, 
Minnesota and Wisconsin

> Above-historical average rainfall this summer is to blame for typical to dull fall 

foliage expected in much of much of New England

> Parts of the Rockies and Northwest will likely see lackluster to dull colors due to 
hot and dry conditions

AccuWeather Global Weather Center – Sept. 4, 2024

AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok says the vibrant red, orange and yellow leaves will most likely be found this autumn in a zone that stretches from the interior Northeast and Great Lakes through the Mississippi River Valley.

"We are forecasting the best places to go are in the Midwest. The trees should have nice reds and oranges and that could extend all the way down to parts of the Ozarks and parts of southern Missouri,” said Pastelok.

How weather patterns impact fall foliage

One of the key weather factors behind vibrant fall foliage is consistent rainfall throughout the late spring and summer. Pastelok says abnormally dry or drought conditions can put stress on the trees, leading to either duller colors in autumn or a shortened fall foliage season with leaves falling off the trees early. Pastelok warns that too much rain can also be detrimental.

"If there's a lot of rain in the late summer and early fall, you can get mold to develop on some of the trees and also invite lots of insects," said Pastelok.

Sunny days paired with cool nights in early autumn can enhance autumn colors. This weather pattern accelerates the breakdown of green chlorophyll in leaves, revealing brilliant shades of orange, red and yellow. Cool weather is beneficial, but frost can be harmful since it halts the production of colorful pigments in the leaves, abruptly ending the leaf-peeping season.

The AccuWeather 2024 U.S. Fall Foliage Forecast also considers weather patterns that are expected in September, October and November.

“There are wild cards. Wind is a big problem. If you have too many windy events, you could see a lot of leaves knocked down early, which could happen in parts of the High Plains and northern Rockies” Pastelok explained. “The bigger concern is the tropical season, which is expected to be very active in late September and October. Storms could knock down a lot of leaves in the Carolinas, parts of Georgia and eastern Tennessee. A lot of areas with fall foliage can be impacted by tropical storms that move inland.”

Pastelok says it’s best to frequently check the AccuWeather forecast when planning any fall foliage trips. 

“Looking at September and early October, we want to see drier days, we want to see cooler nights. That's what’s going to bring out those bright fall colors,” Pastelok said. “Too much rain and too many cloudy days can lead to a duller foliage.”

Vibrant foliage expected in the Great Lakes, Interior Northeast & Midwest

Pastelok credits an ideal combination of weather factors for vibrant colors that are expected across parts of 20 states in the AccuWeather 2024 U.S. Fall Foliage Forecast.

“The better spots for colorful fall foliage are forecast to be in parts of upstate New York, western New York, and central and northern Pennsylvania. Those areas have had a little bit less rainfall. Through September, we may be missing out on the heaviest rainfall. Cooler nights will bring out some of those brighter colors in those areas,” Pastelok explained. “Another big area from the Great Lakes, Midwest, and down to the lower Mississippi Valley looks pretty good as well. They've had decent amounts of precipitation this summer. Going into the early fall season, it looks drier and the nights look cooler, especially in the north.”

Pastelok said fall foliage seekers should plan ahead and prepare for crowds, especially in areas expecting vibrant colors this autumn that saw typical to dull colors last year, like the Ozarks.

“We are expecting good to vibrant colors across northwest Arkansas and parts of Missouri,” said Pastelok. “We think the best places to go will be parts of the Upper Midwest, like Minneapolis, Green Bay, and outside of Chicago. The trees should have nice reds and oranges. Another good place to see good foliage is in parts of the interior Northeast. If you're traveling from the Poconos all the way to maybe Erie, Pennsylvania, those areas could see some pretty good foliage.”

Typical to dull colors expected in New England and the Northwest

The AccuWeather 2024 U.S. Fall Foliage forecast calls for pockets of dull colors along the Appalachians and into eastern New England, as well as along parts of the Rockies and into the Northwest.

This season’s forecast is a major shift from the AccuWeather 2023 U.S. Fall Foliage Forecast, which accurately predicted vibrant colors across much of New England and parts of the West last season.

“We expect more yellows and browns with typical to dull fall foliage along the East coast. We've had a lot of precipitation already and more rain is expected to persist going through early fall. If you factor in additional tropical moisture coming out of the southeast up into the northeast at times, that could also lead to mold development and inviting a lot of insects. We're looking at warmer and more humid conditions later in September for the East, so expect some duller colors,” Pastelok explained. “Going back farther west into parts of the central Appalachians, West Virginia, western Maryland, they had severe drought over the summer. The trees are stressed a little bit so the colors may be a little duller and they may fall off earlier.”

While precipitation is the primary factor influencing fall foliage in the Northeast, heat is the biggest factor in the Southeast and the West.

“We’re going to have some trouble spots as you go farther south and east in the mid-Atlantic states due to the fact that we've had some severe drought this summer, followed by some very heavy rainfall, and more rain is expected in the early fall,” said Pastelok. “Going farther west as you get into the Rockies, we've had heat and drought in full force, that's expected to persist into the early part of the fall season. We could see a late start to the fall foliage season with stressed trees and duller colors.”

The AccuWeather 2024 U.S. Fall Forecast predicts dull colors this autumn in parts of Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, as well as Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Utah, Nevada, and Oregon.

How Climate Change could impact fall foliage in the future

AccuWeather Climate Expert Brett Anderson says impacts from our warming atmosphere will likely impact fall foliage vibrancy and timing in the future.

“The peak fall foliage season has been trending later in the season over the past few decades as our climate continues to warm. In some areas, the average peak foliage time has been pushed back by as much as one to two weeks, compared to what it was back in the 1970-1980s,” Anderson explained. “Looking ahead, this does not mean that every year will have a delayed peak foliage. There will still be some years when the peak period is close to average or even early, but a majority of years will more than likely experience a delayed color change.”

Anderson says a warmer climate increases the odds of less vibrant colors and leaves being blown off the trees earlier in the season.

“Climate change is projected to bring more dull colors in general. Part of the reason for this would be the decrease in clear, cool nights in the early fall,” Anderson explained. “Another factor would be the increase in extreme weather due to climate change. More extreme rain events and windstorms would lead to premature leaf loss. Unusually wet and humid patterns in the late summer into early fall could also promote fungus growth, which can lead to duller colors later in the season, as well as early leaf loss. Warmer winters also lead to less insect die-off, which can mean more insects that can damage or kill trees during the growing season.”

AccuWeather Forecast Graphics

Additional AccuWeather Resources:

Fall foliage 2024: Where the weather will create stunning autumn colors

Fall forecast: Warm autumn to fuel 'second summer' across most of the US

Why meteorological and astronomical fall start on 2 different dates